I reckon that his likeness to Pope Francis is becoming a double-edged sword. It appears that such similarities in traits may derail his candidacy concerning four intricately related key factors.

The first and most crucial factor is in the form of a question. That is, “Does Cardinal Tagle want to be a Pope?” It appears, at least outwardly, that he’s not interested. If that’s the case, it becomes problematic if he is a reluctant candidate. If he does not want this topmost position in the Catholic Church’s hierarchy, he might as well forget about it.

We all know Paulo Coelho’s 1988 classic book titled The Alchemist. This renowned best-selling Brazilian author often writes about dreams, destiny, and the universe’s role in helping individuals achieve their goals. To borrow one of his most famous quotes: “And, when you want something, all the universe conspires in helping you to achieve it.”

If indeed Cardinal Tagle wants to pursue the leadership helm of the Catholic Church, he ought to pursue his goal with determination and faith.

Having said that, he also ought to recognize that the 133 voting cardinals are human beings. Inevitably, he must also ‘play’ politics with them as the process is a game of numbers. He must persuade his fellow cardinals that he is ‘The Man’. Simply told in Latin, he is the primus inter pares or the first among equals since they all belong in equal rank to the College of Cardinals. Two-thirds majority means the math is to gather 89 votes, including his vote. That is the magic number. It can be more, but not less.

The corollary argument is to consider these prelates as fallible human beings. That is why I love reading the best-selling novels of the maverick American priest, the late Fr. Andrew Greeley. He often alluded that the priesthood (including the lives of bishops and popes) has its share of political intrigues and intricate organizational complexities. Among his most memorable quote about clerical life is given below:

“The priesthood is not a job, it’s a vocation – but that doesn’t mean it’s free of intrigue, ambition, and even occasional skullduggery. After all, we’re dealing with human beings, not angels.”

Simply told, priests, bishops, and even popes are not immune to sin. They may scheme against their detractors, struggle with faith, engage in forbidden love, and sometimes succumb to worldly temptations — all while trying to serve God.

Just like the Hollywood, the Vatican has its share of closed-door conversations, intrigues, rumors and whispers. A cardinal who wants to be a pope does not leave his candidacy alone to the intercession of the Holy Spirit. Once he aspires to be a pope, he cannot help but become a politician. That is, he must draw the two third majority to his side. In arithmetic expression, running for this papacy is a simple accumulation of 89 votes.

Do cardinals also trade favors? Do they also wheel-and-deal or engage in some tacit forms of horse trading? Off course there are no incontrovertible evidence.

Pope Benedict XVI assumed office after the Fourth Ballot in the late afternoon of 19 April 2005. Although Pope Francis was a strong contender, there were rumors that he urged his supporters to vote for Pope Benedict XVI instead of him to break the deadlock. And when Benedict XVI resigned on 28 February 2013, Pope Francis was elected with 90 votes (exceeding the required 77). Strange coincidence? These two popes had established a cordial relationship and never said anything against each other. (Historical footnote: The successor of Pope Celestine V [who resigned in December 1294] was Pope Boniface VIII (1294–1303) who imprisoned him!)

The second factor concerns race and the skin color of the papal candidates. Broadly, for simplicity, humans are classified into four major races: (1) Caucasoid – typically with white or light skin often referring to European, North African, and some Middle Eastern descent; (2) Negroid – predominantly with black skin from the people of sub-Saharan African descent; (3) Mongoloid – with brown or yellowish skin that is historically used for East Asians, Southeast Asians, and Native Americans; and (4) Australoid – black people that refer to Aboriginal Australians and some populations in South Asia and Melanesia.

Whether you accept this assertion or not about race, the Catholic Church throughout its history has never had a confirmed black colored pope or brown pope. (There were insinuations but no definitive proof or evidence that the following popes possessed dark skin: Pope Victor I (c. 189–199 AD; Pope Miltiades (Melchiades, 311 –314 AD); and Pope Gelasius I (492–496 AD.)

In this racial aspect, Cardinal Tagle is at a positional disadvantage. Let us not forget that during Spain’s colonial occupation of the Philippines, the Filipinos were labelled with the derogatory term Indios and were largely treated as sub-humans. As such, the Spanish religious authorities initially forbade the Filipinos from becoming priests to officiate the mass, and therefore, they could only serve as lowly acolytes!

The third factor is who will win the tug-of-war between the influential individuals and cliques within the blocks of progressives and the conservatives. As I mentioned earlier, Pope Francis, despite his global popularity, had detractors who were embedded within the church’s bureaucracy.  At one end of the institutional spectrum, some conservatives have opposed his reforms, specifically on synodality and Communion for divorcees.

On the other end, some progressives have been frustrated that Pope Francis did not do enough to address critical issues related to LGBTQ+ rights, women’s ordination, and married priests. In between are those unhappy that Pope Francis was slow in rectifying the abuses committed by some priests and bishops to their parishioners.

Since Cardinal Tagle was intimately associated with Pope Francis, it’s possible that he could become the ‘collateral’ damage. We need to consider that these powerful religious blocks, individuals, and bureaucrats have backers behind the scenes from various business, political, and institutional interests.

The fourth factor – but not necessarily the least – is timing. There is an adage that timing is paramount in attaining one’s ambition. The French playwright Victor Hugo is often credited with this powerful quote: “No army can stop an idea whose time has come.” But has the idea of a brown pope – the so-called papa maronne – already come? (Figure 5) Is the time already ripe for the election of an Oriental or brown-colored pope from Asia? My opinionated take is not yet.